We are in the midst of a national debate over the size and scope of government and I am hopeful.  Conservative Republican Joe Miller’s remarkable victory in the Alaska Republican Senate Primary should have Americans feeling optimistic about the prospects of real change coming to Washington in 2011. Miller’s victory over incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski is just the latest jolt to an establishment that has paved the way for an unsustainable $13.3 trillion national debt and record budget deficits.

My PAC, Citizens United Political Victory Fund (www.cupvf.org) has a goal for the 2009-2010 election cycle to recapture the majorities in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives by helping to elect candidates who will fight for conservative principles and challenge the agenda of the Obama Administration.  To date, CUPVF has made more than $300,000 in direct contributions to 53 federal candidates who are campaigning to put an end to this fiscal insanity.

If Miller is elected to the Senate in November, along with fellow fiscal conservatives Pat Toomey (PA), Marco Rubio (FL), Sharron Angle (NV), Ken Buck (CO), and Rand Paul (KY), business as usual in Washington will be over.  And good riddance!  After all, one U.S. Senator has the power to bring the legislative and appropriations process to a halt.  Imagine what this group of potential newcomers, with a clear mandate to stop the spending, could do to get America’s fiscal house in order!   Establishment incumbents from both parties should beware that the taxpayer funded party is about to end.   Voters are giving the order:  enough is enough.

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You are probably familiar by now with this infamous graph published by the White House in January 2009 highlighting their expectations for the impact of the Recovery Act on the rate of unemployment. Far from leveling off at 8% and then declining, the actual unemployment rate ran up to 10% by the end of 2009 and has declined only slightly since to 9.5%, largely due to a decline in labor force participation. This in spite of the rapid passage of the massive $787 billion stimulus bill in February 2009. (Geoff at the Innocent Bystanders blog deserves everlasting credit for being the first to point out this disconnect.)

With the White House and other Democrats resolutely sticking to their claim that the stimulus bill “saved or created” 3-4 million jobs, I thought it might be worthwhile to point out that the very same January 2009 White House report also included an industry by industry forecast of where these 3-4 million jobs would come from. Here it is:

Thanks to the inclination of economists to model verifiable data (even when they are pulling numbers out of the sky), these industry categories happen to align perfectly with employment data tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Thus we can easily compare the actual changes in employment to the figures forecast by the White House. In the table below, I’ve calculated the net change in employment by industry from February 2009, when the stimulus bill was passed, to July 2010, using the latest data available from the BLS. (Click row headings for data source.)

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Today, in 1774, the first Continental Congress assembled in Philadelphia.

From Business Insider:

As everyone should know by now, my main concern with unions is specifically with public unions. While I do not care for unions at all, and never have, at least with private unions, someone other than corrupt politicians buying votes is bargaining at the other end of the table.

In the case of public unions, if politicians strike a bad deal, taxpayers foot the bill. In the case of private corporations, if management strikes a bad deal, the company goes bankrupt, shareholders take a hit, or the jobs move elsewhere, as soon as the contract is up.

Except in few cases every now and again, private unions just cannot seem to understand this simple economic fact.

Machinists Union Pickets Cessna Aircraft

The Kansas Wichita Eagle highlights the typical union response, public or private, in Cessna’s initial offer to Machinists includes wage cut:

Machinist union members at Cessna Aircraft picketed near the company’s plant in southwest Wichita on Thursday to protest jobs being sent outside the city.

Members fought strong, gusty afternoon winds and carried signs that read “Keep it Made in Wichita,” “Outsourcing is Treason” and “We built the Air Capital,” as they picketed at K-42 and Hoover roads. Some carried American flags.

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Earlier this week, Big Government reported that the Alaska Libertarian Party, after initial opposition, was open to reversing itself and welcoming Lisa Murkowski has their candidate this November. Now, Alaska Dispatch reports:

A new poll has U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski beating Joe Miller by six percent if she runs on the Libertarian ticket. The bigger news? The Alaska Libertarian Party isn’t as opposed to the idea as it sounded a few days ago. The party’s candidate for senator, David Haase, said he would support Murkowski if she agreed to certain Libertarian principals.

“If Lisa Murkowski will take up the banner of the people’s bailout, then she’ll have my support,” said Haase, 68. “But with sincerity and for real,” he added, chuckling. “I’m not going to buy a pig in a poke here.”

For Murkowski to run on the Libertarian ticket, Haase would have to step down and the party’s executive board would have to approve Murkowski. According to the party’s chairman, they are willing to sit down and listen to Murkowski.

“We are open to a sit-down chat with Lisa, anytime,” said Scott Kohlhaas, the party’s chairman and a candidate for House District 20 in Anchorage. Kohlhaas didn’t rule out the possibility of Murkowski running on the Libertarian’s ticket, but he did offer two reservations.

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Mark Steyn returns. Need we say more? Ok, we will: we cover GZM, Bridget Bardot, Obama’s speech, expectations for this fall, The Dambusters, Michele Rhee, the Beck rally, and we try to get to the bottom of where Mark’s been the past few months. You’ll just have to listen to hear the answer.

For links mentioned in this episode, or to comment, complain, or praise, please visit us at Ricochet.com.

From CBS 2 Chicago, not The Onion:

At a news conference organized by self-identified gang members Thursday morning, several speakers complained that police and city officials do not respect them, and that the only way to curb violence is to provide jobs and improve their community.

The men who spoke out Thursday morning blamed poverty, drugs and a lack of jobs for the problems in the streets. They also said that Chicago Police Supt. Jody Weis’ meeting with so-called gang leaders was a waste of time.

But when asked what could be done right now to stop the daily barrage of bullets on Chicago streets, they didn’t have an answer.

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Consider the outrage from the left at such a notion.

“That’s the thinking that got us into this mess in the first place,” the President and his lock-step liberal legions will rush to remind us.

Well, no, it isn’t.  The Bush Administration’s general lack of interest in proper regulation, the somnambulistic SEC’s furlough from responsibility during the Bush years and the federal bank examiners refusal to really examine the banks for which they were accountable while a succession of administrations, both Republican and Democrat, committed to the fantasy that credit history didn’t really matter when assessing mortgage risk are not examples of government getting out of the way of a private, market-driven, economy.  These are simply examples of a gross absence of leadership, common sense and the failure to enforce the longstanding oversight rules already in place.

Just as abandoning highway speed and safety laws would cause carnage on our highways as irresponsible and reckless risk takers took to the roads, so did government’s failure to enforce its own rules and regulations attract irresponsible and reckless risk takers into the marketplace.  Had the rules and regulations that were in place been properly enforced, and had the House and Senate financial oversight committees taken their jobs seriously, and had the business and financial press (with a few noteworthy exceptions) earned their subscribers’ fees, the mess we’ve been exposed to for the last three years would (not could…would) have been avoided.

Economists will debate ad nauseam for many years (and never reach a consensus) whether the Obama stimulus stimulated anything other than massive debt.  We have strong doubts about the efficacy of incurring a trillion dollar debt to improve the economy along with a plethora of new policies and regulations that will add tens of thousands of new bureaucrats (literally) and thousands of new regulations (and the massive taxes needed to fund this circus) on to the backs of businesses and all other taxpayers in the cause of stimulating growth.  Individuals and businesses in the marketplace are what stimulate growth, and, by any measure, the marketplace is ready to grow if government would just allow it properly to operate.

Many American businessmen are, today, at the controls of well-oiled and well-fueled industrial machines, but they don’t know whether to, metaphorically, depress the brake or the accelerator of those machines. And who can blame them. Everything the government is doing portends uncertainty and, indeed, danger ahead.  Bare teeth determination to raise taxes on capital, on dividends on high-quality corporate insurance programs on corporations deemed too successful (that would be all small businesses earning over $250,000) and on the most productive income earners in our society is the order of the day emanating from the White House.  This, while the greatest feeding frenzy of new regulatory rule making has been simultaneously unleashed in Washington. And our new ruling class cluelessly laments the hesitancy that permeates our economy.

The tragedy is that the economy is poised to accelerate.

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Today, in 1998, Google was founded. Only twelve years people…

Paris Hilton may be able to shop without looking at price tags, but the State of Illinois doesn’t have that luxury—particularly when it already has $4.7 billion in unpaid bills. Even so, state legislators receive precious little information on how much the laws they’re approving will save or cost taxpayers.

A summer 2010 survey by the Illinois Policy Institute found that out of 545 bills pending review by the governor, only 3 percent—or 16 bills—had fiscal notes attached. Fiscal notes are like “price tags” for legislation. They are intended to estimate the costs, savings, revenue gain, or revenue loss resulting from the implementation of proposed legislation.

Many of the fiscal notes found in the Institute’s survey were just a couple of sentences long. Believe it or not, we found a fiscal note that was just one word: “minimal.”

The result of this lack of information? Legislators and the public are unable to conduct a proper analysis of the budgetary effects of proposed legislation, and this has real consequences for the state budget. Indeed, the Blagojevich All Kids Expansion passed in 2005 had no fiscal note, although an Auditor General report found that the program’s net cost was $70 million in fiscal year 2009. The statewide sales tax holiday held this August was passed with no fiscal note, even though it is likely to reduce expected tax collections by tens of millions of dollars. Unfortunately, these examples are the norm, not the exceptions.

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From the LA Times:

The command center of Andrew Breitbart’s growing media empire is a suite of offices on Sawtelle Boulevard in West Los Angeles with the temporary feel of a campaign office. Only the computers seem firmly anchored.

On a recent summer day, just weeks after he posted video clips that touched off a national furor over race, Breitbart was swigging a bottled Frappuccino at his desk. In a Lacoste shirt, cargo shorts and laceless Converse All-Stars, he looked every bit the 41-year-old industry player he might have been, but for a political awakening that transformed this liberal, West Side child of privilege into a Hollywood-hating, mainstream-media-loathing conservative.

Breitbart, who has emerged as a star of the “tea party” movement, loves telling his apostate’s tale in the italicized, frequently profane manner that is his trademark. Three epiphanies stand out:

1. The Black Dorm Moment. In 1986, Breitbart was a freshman at Tulane University when his friend Larry Solov, a sophomore at Stanford, happened to mention his school’s African-American-themed residence hall.

“He just matter-of-factly said there was a black dorm and I was like, ‘What the friggin’ hell? Are you kidding me?’” said Breitbart, who is now business partners with Solov, a former corporate litigator.

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In this week’s edition of Coffee and Markets, featuring The New Ledger’s Francis Cianfrocca, we’re talking about the latest unemployment numbers, the call for a millionaire’s tax, and Christina Romer’s goodbye remarks. We’re brought to you as always by BigGovernment.com and Stephen Clouse and Associates.

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You can subscribe to the podcast by following the links above, and if you’d like to email us, you can do so at coffee[at]newledger.com. We hope you enjoy the show.

Related Links:

TNL: Barack Obama is Losing Time
Romer: My Plan Failed
The Hill: White House Rules Out Stimulus Sequel
TNL: The Troubles Rich People Have
TNL: Critiquing Newt Gingrich’s Economic Policy

As a service to all Americans, allow me to remind you all of Sen. Harry Reid’s infamous pronouncement in 2007:

Now, in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Sen. Reid makes an unbelievable new claim:

At the time Sen. Reid made this comment, President Bush had been pursuing a failed, stay-the-course strategy that had cost thousands of American lives and billions of taxpayer dollars. Iraq appeared to be on the verge of a sectarian civil war. He was simply pointing out what our military leaders, including Gen. Petraeus, had been saying for months: that we could not win by staying the course; the war needed to be won diplomatically, politically, and economically. Sen. Reid and his colleagues were successful in forcing President Bush to finally abandon his failed approach and refocus on political reconciliation. This is what ultimately paved the way for the Iraqi government to take greater responsibility for Iraq’s future. Sen. Reid’s comments were directed at President Bush and his following of misguided policymakers, not at the heroic troops who continue to serve our country with incredible courage.

As Sherman Frederick of the Las Vega Review-Journal puts it:

Asked about his 2007 comment in which he proclaimed “This war is lost” while our soldiers were still in Iraq getting their heads shot at and before the so-called “surge” even had begun, Reid today said that his statement was actually a “successful” ploy to force President Bush to refocus on political reconciliation.

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Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) is the latest victim of the Tea Party insurgency that’s trying to take over the Republican Party. Tea Party favorite Joe Miller defeated Murkowski in The North Star State’s primary by hammering away at (among other things) her support for TARP and lack of zeal for overturning Obamacare.

Miller joins a new breed of anti-spending candidates such as Maine’s Paul LePage, Kentucky’s Rand Paul, Florida’s Marco Rubio, and South Carolina’s Nikki Haley, who promise to bring a new passion for shrinking government to D.C. and state capitals.

Here’s how Freedom Works’ Dick Armey and Matt Kibbe sum up what the Tea Party stands for in their new book, Give us Liberty: A Tea Party Manifesto: “It doesn’t take a lot of words to say that we just want to be free. Free to lead our lives as we please, so long as we don’t infringe on the same freedom of others.”

Armey and Kibbe say that the Tea Party coheres around spending and that other issues are not central to its mission. Perhaps. Joe Miller is also pro-life, pro border fence, and wants to outlaw the use of embryonic stem cells in medical research. Maine gubernatorial hopeful LePage believes the “traditional definition of marriage should be preserved.” Haley, who will probably be South Carolina’s next governor, has campaigned on tough enforcement against illegal immigrants. And the closest thing to a Tea Party spokesperson is Sarah Palin, the former “Bridge to Nowhere” supporter who oversaw a 16 percent increase in spending during her time as governor of Alaska.

Can this coalition stay together, stick to its anti-spending message, and actually change American politics? Or will it be co-opted by the very party upon which it seeks to perform a “hostile takeover?”

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Corporate profits are at all-time highs and bond rates in the Treasury market are virtually at record lows. That’s a good combination for stocks, and it helped trigger a 255 point rally in Wednesday’s trading. What’s more, a surprisingly positive read on the ISM August manufacturing report delivered a strong blow to the double-dip recession pessimism that has plagued investors for many months.

Without question, the jobs picture is going to remain cloudy. There’s just too much uncertainty over the economy and the tax-and-regulatory threats coming out of Washington. Businesses can’t be sure about the costs of hiring. Meanwhile, over in housing — our other weakest sector — an inventory glut threatens further price declines.

But make no mistake about this: Businesses, at least the publically owned ones, are in very good shape. U.S. firms scored a record $1.2 trillion in profits during the second quarter and are sitting on roughly $2 trillion in cash. Our private-sector companies are resilient, and they have recovered significantly from the economic plunge.

And while their hiring is still behind schedule, they have begun the process of investing in equipment, software, and other capital goods. Business investment in the June quarter rose 16 percent above year-ago levels. This is all to the good. Healthy businesses are crucial to the stock market as well as the overall economic outlook.

In fact, since 2001, business profits have doubled, even while the stock market dial has hardly moved. If Washington can just keep its paws off of business and let market processes work, firms will continue to prosper domestically and internationally and will eventually pick up their hiring.

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On August 24, I posted some data and analysis on yield curves for high-grade corporate bonds since the beginning of 2008, seeking to determine whether changes in these curves are consistent with the hypothesis that the current economic crisis has given rise to regime uncertainty. If it has done so, the yield curves should display increased spreads between the period immediately before the financial panic in the latter part of 2008 and the period since mid-2009, when the extraordinary volatility of the bond markets had ceased.

A reader of this post, Chris Lemens, commented: “I would imagine that, if the yield curves for both private and federal bonds moved similarly, that would mainly tell us about inflationary expectations, not regime uncertainty. (Well, inflation is a kind of regime uncertainty, but you know what I mean.)”

Here, I respond to Lemens’s comment, which raises an important issue, inasmuch as economists commonly interpret a steepening of the yield curve as indicative of increased inflationary expectations and nothing else.

First, one should appreciate, as Lemens does, that changes in expectations about future inflation may themselves reflect changes in regime uncertainty. If, for example, bond traders came to expect a transformation of government policies that would entail a substantial further attenuation of private property rights, they would also be likely to expect that in the future the rulers who preside over the new economic (dis)order will find themselves in serious economic trouble. (Economies without fairly firm private property rights do not work well.) Perhaps the most time-honored of all government actions to escape from such difficulties is the issuance of more and more new money, to be used sooner or later to pay the government’s bills; and the virtually inevitable consequence of such large-scale monetary effusion is a rising rate of general price inflation for newly produced goods and services, along with a diminished rate of real economic growth, perhaps even economic contraction.

So, increased regime uncertainty may give rise to increased inflationary expectations.

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Time Magazine discovers that it isn’t all pixie dust and unicorns in Obama-land. It is now wondering how Barack Obama became ‘Mr. Unpopular.’ Hmmm…what could it be?